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<!--Generated by Squarespace Site Server v5.0.0 (http://www.squarespace.com/) on Thu, 04 Dec 2008 19:28:45 GMT--><rss xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/" xmlns:itunes="http://www.itunes.com/dtds/podcast-1.0.dtd" xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" version="2.0"><channel><title>Realitybase Journal</title><link>http://www.realitybase.org/journal/</link><description></description><copyright></copyright><language>en-US</language><generator>Squarespace Site Server v5.0.0 (http://www.squarespace.com/)</generator><item><title>Atmospheric CO2 measurements by satellites start next month.</title><category>Global Warming</category><dc:creator>Skeptic</dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 02 Dec 2008 16:24:06 +0000</pubDate><link>http://www.realitybase.org/journal/2008/12/2/atmospheric-co2-measurements-by-satellites-start-next-month.html</link><guid isPermaLink="false">173103:1648616:2637641</guid><description><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/02/science/earth/02carb.html?ref=science">This</a> ought to settle once and for all the question whether ambient CO2 has anthropogenic sources and help monitor changes in CO2 emissions and concentrations as regulatory programs take effect.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>In January, the next frontier of atmospheric CO2 measuring instruments will begin when the National Aeronautics and Space Administration launches the first carbon-scanning satellite, called the Orbiting Carbon Observatory.</p>
<p>Each day, the satellite will orbit Earth 15 times, taking nearly 500,000 measurements of the "fingerprint" that CO2 leaves in the air between the satellite and Earth's surface. The data will be used to create a map of CO2 concentrations that will help scientists determine precisely where the sources and sinks are&mdash;showing differences in trace gases down to a 1 part per million precision against a background of 380 parts per million CO2 equivalent.</p>
</blockquote>]]></description><wfw:commentRss>http://www.realitybase.org/journal/rss-comments-entry-2637641.xml</wfw:commentRss></item><item><title>Risk management means taking the risks your competitors take.</title><category>Sub-prime Mortgage Melt-down</category><dc:creator>Skeptic</dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 30 Nov 2008 22:36:53 +0000</pubDate><link>http://www.realitybase.org/journal/2008/11/30/risk-management-means-taking-the-risks-your-competitors-take.html</link><guid isPermaLink="false">173103:1648616:2630743</guid><description><![CDATA[<p>It is frequently said nowadays that the risk management function in Wall Street firms failed because of lack of accurate and credible information and/or executive incompetence. However, the piece of information that generally overwhelms all other information about the riskiness of an investment is whether competitors are taking the risk. Consider this reflection of completely ordinary business behavior from <a href="http://www.portfolio.com/views/blogs/market-movers/2008/11/29/rubins-teflon-finally-wears-off?tid=true"><em>Rubin's Teflon Finally Wears Off</em></a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Mr. Rubin was deeply involved in a decision in late 2004 and early 2005 to take on more risk to boost flagging profit growth, according to people familiar with the discussions. They say he would comment that Citigroup's competitors were taking more risks, leading to higher profits.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The problem isn't limited to investments, of course. Businesses everywhere are having frequent and agonizing meetings of their credit committees to decide whether to accept, for example, the next order for parts from GM or Acme Widget when they have been refused COD, credit insurance, and factoring. Or whether to ship to a large retailer with disturbing credit scores and rumored to be on the edge of BK. If they don't take the order, the consequences for their business may be dire, permanent loss of the customer, for example. Usually, they will wring their hands and take the risk.</p>
<p>Credible technical information about risk is not enough. There must be prudential regulation to keep financial firms "too big to fail"&nbsp;from following the herd onto dangerous ground. I am much more upset about Rubin's failings as a government official than I am about his performance at Citi. The scandal of the subprime mortgage meltdown is not that a few bad apples committed crimes or deceit but that practically everything that happened was perfectly legal.</p>]]></description><wfw:commentRss>http://www.realitybase.org/journal/rss-comments-entry-2630743.xml</wfw:commentRss></item><item><title>Who will tell Obama about the flaws in his advisors’ core economic beliefs?</title><category>Economics</category><dc:creator>Skeptic</dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 30 Nov 2008 22:18:34 +0000</pubDate><link>http://www.realitybase.org/journal/2008/11/30/who-will-tell-obama-about-the-flaws-in-his-advisors-core-eco.html</link><guid isPermaLink="false">173103:1648616:2630699</guid><description><![CDATA[<p>Bob Kuttner <a href="http://www.pbs.org/now/shows/447/video.html">reflects</a> on Obama's economic policy challenges and is "a little nervous about who he's listening to." He's referring to Robert Rubin and his prot&eacute;g&eacute;s, Summers and Geithner, and other gatekeepers who embraced the failed mainstream economics of the last 25 years. Obama correctly says the Administration needs people with actual government experience in key positions, but he also says he wants new ideas. How do impressive heterodox people like Kuttner, who got right what the gatekeepers got wrong, get heard?</p>]]></description><wfw:commentRss>http://www.realitybase.org/journal/rss-comments-entry-2630699.xml</wfw:commentRss></item><item><title>President Washington’s first Thanksgiving Day proclamation. It wasn’t about the harvest.</title><dc:creator>Skeptic</dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 28 Nov 2008 20:38:38 +0000</pubDate><link>http://www.realitybase.org/journal/2008/11/28/president-washingtons-first-thanksgiving-day-proclamation-it.html</link><guid isPermaLink="false">173103:1648616:2619696</guid><description><![CDATA[<p>Whereas it is the duty of all Nations to acknowledge the providence of Almighty God, to obey his will, to be grateful for his benefits, and humbly to implore his protection and favor -- and whereas both Houses of Congress have by their joint Committee requested me "to recommend to the People of the United States a day of public thanksgiving and prayer to be observed by acknowledging with grateful hearts the many signal favors of Almighty God especially by affording them an opportunity peaceably to establish a form of government for their safety and happiness."<br /><br />Now therefore I do recommend and assign Thursday the 26th day of November next to be devoted by the People of these States to the service of that great and glorious Being, who is the beneficent Author of all the good that was, that is, or that will be -- That we may then all unite in rendering unto him our sincere and humble thanks -- for his kind care and protection of the People of this Country previous to their becoming a Nation -- for the signal and manifold mercies, and the favorable interpositions of his Providence which we experienced in the tranquility, union, and plenty, which we have since enjoyed -- for the peaceable and rational manner, in which we have been enabled to establish constitutions of government for our safety and happiness, and particularly the national One now lately instituted -- for the civil and religious liberty with which we are blessed; and the means we have of acquiring and diffusing useful knowledge; and in general for all the great and various favors which he hath been pleased to confer upon us.</p>
<p>And also that we may then unite in most humbly offering our prayers and supplications to the great Lord and Ruler of Nations and beseech him to pardon our national and other transgressions -- to enable us all, whether in public or private stations, to perform our several and relative duties properly and punctually -- to render our national government a blessing to all the people, by constantly being a Government of wise, just, and constitutional laws, discreetly and faithfully executed and obeyed -- to protect and guide all Sovereigns and Nations (especially such as have shewn kindness onto us) and to bless them with good government, peace, and concord -- To promote the knowledge and practice of true religion and virtue, and the encrease of science among them and us -- and generally to grant unto all Mankind such a degree of temporal prosperity as he alone knows to be best.<br /><br />Given under my hand at the City of New York<br />the third day of October in the year of our Lord 1789.<br /><br />George Washington<br /><br />(Thanks to Lynda C. for sending this.)</p>]]></description><wfw:commentRss>http://www.realitybase.org/journal/rss-comments-entry-2619696.xml</wfw:commentRss></item><item><title>Lessons from The Great Depression--Part 2</title><category>Economics</category><category>Sub-prime Mortgage Melt-down</category><dc:creator>Skeptic</dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 28 Nov 2008 19:35:42 +0000</pubDate><link>http://www.realitybase.org/journal/2008/11/28/lessons-from-the-great-depression-part-2.html</link><guid isPermaLink="false">173103:1648616:2619605</guid><description><![CDATA[<p>Keynes or Friedman? Monetary policy became an impotent tool, or the Fed caused The Great Depression by not expanding the money supply enough fast enough and rescuing banks? Paul Krugman <a href="http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/11/28/was-the-great-depression-a-monetary-phenomenon/">points out</a> that in the current crisis the Fed and Treasury have been aggressively implementing the Friedman cure, and it isn't working.</p>
<p>I hope Obama's economic policy team can get beyond this academic cat fight, recognize that neither Keynes nor Friedman nor any other economist has the whole "truth" about this, and make some sound pragmatic judgments--and be ready to adjust based on results and changing circumstances.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Part 1 is <a href="http://www.realitybase.org/journal/2008/11/25/lessons-from-the-great-depression.html">here</a>.</p>]]></description><wfw:commentRss>http://www.realitybase.org/journal/rss-comments-entry-2619605.xml</wfw:commentRss></item><item><title>Atlas Shrugged updated for the current financial crisis</title><category>Made Me Laugh</category><category>Sub-prime Mortgage Melt-down</category><dc:creator>Skeptic</dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 28 Nov 2008 19:30:27 +0000</pubDate><link>http://www.realitybase.org/journal/2008/11/28/atlas-shrugged-updated-for-the-current-financial-crisis.html</link><guid isPermaLink="false">173103:1648616:2619580</guid><description><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://mcsweeneys.net/2008/11/20tucker.html">The link</a>.&nbsp;</p>]]></description><wfw:commentRss>http://www.realitybase.org/journal/rss-comments-entry-2619580.xml</wfw:commentRss></item><item><title>How cartels lose control—Part 3</title><category>Crude oil prices</category><dc:creator>Skeptic</dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 28 Nov 2008 16:45:23 +0000</pubDate><link>http://www.realitybase.org/journal/2008/11/28/how-cartels-lose-controlpart-3.html</link><guid isPermaLink="false">173103:1648616:2619186</guid><description><![CDATA[<p>Free riders. Russia's budget, current account, and exchange rate are all hurting with crude oil prices below $70, and they have to worry that OPEC might keep production high just to discipline Russia for its refusal to share the pain of production cuts. So now Russia says it will "coordinate" with OPEC, but not "collude." Don't you admire Russia's principled stand? FT story <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/bbacc5ac-bc66-11dd-9efc-0000779fd18c,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F1%2Fbbacc5ac-bc66-11dd-9efc-0000779fd18c.html&amp;_i_referer=">here</a>.</p>]]></description><wfw:commentRss>http://www.realitybase.org/journal/rss-comments-entry-2619186.xml</wfw:commentRss></item><item><title>How cartels lose control—Part 2</title><category>Crude oil prices</category><dc:creator>Skeptic</dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 28 Nov 2008 16:15:59 +0000</pubDate><link>http://www.realitybase.org/journal/2008/11/28/how-cartels-lose-controlpart-2.html</link><guid isPermaLink="false">173103:1648616:2619129</guid><description><![CDATA[<p>With petroleum prices lower than probably any OPEC member wants them, $52 this morning, member nations are split between those who want to agree on further production cuts and those who want to have everybody comply with the already-agreed cuts. The difference between the production cuts announced by OPEC and the actual reductions by OPEC members is often considerable and always a source of distrust amongst the members. Because of rampant cupidity and incompetence, nobody trusts official production figures like these.</p>
<p style="background: white"><img src="http://www.realitybase.org/resource/112808_1615_Howcartelsl1.gif?fileId=2195336" alt="" /><span style="font-family:Arial; font-size:10pt"> </span></p>
<p>For example, Venezuela has to adjust its official production figures periodically when the amount of cash coming into the treasury gets out of whack with the volumes claimed by the production people. Consequently, even OPEC members rely on data from third party networks of spies and from the anti-cartel, International Energy Agency. Financial Times has the story <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/62faea4a-bcbd-11dd-af5a-0000779fd18c.html">here</a>. Part 1 of this n-part series is <a href="http://www.realitybase.org/journal/2008/10/16/crude-oil-prices-have-fallen-by-half-but-are-still-too-high.html">here</a>.</p>]]></description><wfw:commentRss>http://www.realitybase.org/journal/rss-comments-entry-2619129.xml</wfw:commentRss></item><item><title>The Financial System: Proudly bringing you disasters since 1720.</title><category>Sub-prime Mortgage Melt-down</category><dc:creator>Skeptic</dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 27 Nov 2008 21:31:11 +0000</pubDate><link>http://www.realitybase.org/journal/2008/11/27/the-financial-system-proudly-bringing-you-disasters-since-17.html</link><guid isPermaLink="false">173103:1648616:2616596</guid><description><![CDATA[<p>The author of <em>The First Crash: Lessons from the South Sea Bubble</em> <a href="http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/2618">asks</a> why few if any of the 4000 university professors of finance didn't see the dangers in the recent credit bubble or in the recombination of commercial banks and investment banks into universal banks and financial services firms.</p>]]></description><wfw:commentRss>http://www.realitybase.org/journal/rss-comments-entry-2616596.xml</wfw:commentRss></item><item><title>Nobody coulda foreseen the subprime mortgage meltdown—except for a lot a people who blew the whistle years ago.</title><category>Sub-prime Mortgage Melt-down</category><dc:creator>Skeptic</dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 25 Nov 2008 18:57:00 +0000</pubDate><link>http://www.realitybase.org/journal/2008/11/25/nobody-coulda-foreseen-the-subprime-mortgage-meltdownexcept.html</link><guid isPermaLink="false">173103:1648616:2609152</guid><description><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.portfolio.com/news-markets/national-news/portfolio/2008/11/11/The-End-of-Wall-Streets-Boom">This</a> is an absolutely riveting account of the inflating subprime bubble told mainly from the perspective of industry insiders who understood there was no there there and bet heavily against these securities and the equities of firms that created, rated, and owned them. It describes how the volume of credit default swaps exploded because they were the "side bets" that allowed speculators to short mortgage backed securities and other collateralized debt obligations at much lower cost than borrowing and shorting the actual securities. Then the sellers of credit insurance packaged and subdivided the swap contracts to mirror the "shorted" securities. Normally the longs hate the shorts, but in this case people who were long on the MBSs and CDOs loved the short sellers because it increased the volume of activity on which they earned large fees while their clients were being walked over a cliff. Not only is the piece informative, it's a fun read by the author of <em>Liar's Poker</em> and has names and dialogs of knaves and fools as well as truth-tellers.</p>]]></description><wfw:commentRss>http://www.realitybase.org/journal/rss-comments-entry-2609152.xml</wfw:commentRss></item></channel></rss>